one-ai

Signal: Bullish (the price reaches the upper band before the lower), Bearish (the lower first) or Stays in range (neither). The band follows recent volatility, so it is wider for Bitcoin, and is set so that about a third of windows stay inside it. "Stays in range" is signalled when a breakout is unlikely; otherwise Bullish or Bearish, whichever the model leans to more compared with how often it usually happens. Every signal and move size keeps being used: one that hasn't been called on 5–10% of the past year's days is called again on the days it is likeliest. The expected move is small, medium or big, whichever the model rates furthest above its usual frequency. Model, chosen per market on 2021–2024 and 2025–today: v4 for S&P 500's next 7 days, v8 for S&P 500's next day and NASDAQ, v5 for gold, v7 for Bitcoin. v4 and v5: gradient-boosted trees and small neural nets with a crisis detector, v5 with a separate volatility forecast. v7 and v8: pools of models each trained for one market and one horizon, that first estimate whether the price leaves the band (a "will it move" model learning from all four markets); v8 adds a volatility model pooled over the markets (daily price ranges, implied volatility). Fed with prices, volatility indexes and scheduled events; refitted every day with the newest data. Volatility: how likely the price is to leave the ±band (low / normal / high against the model's record; on a stays-in-range signal, how likely it is to stay inside). Success rates come from 2025–today, which the models never trained on, and from live predictions since: for the signal, how often that kind of signal came true; for volatility, how often the price left the band (or stayed inside it) when the model gave that level. Usual: how often it happens anyway. The models' edge is mostly in telling calm days from moving ones; the direction of a move is much harder to predict. Predictions are made from each market's latest close (S&P 500, NASDAQ and gold: the last trading day; Bitcoin: midnight UTC) and updated every night.